Title: Gambler's Wisdom: Adverse Selection, Severe Uncertainty, and Common Sense
Speaker: Harry Crane, Professor, Department of Statistics, Rutgers University
Abstract:
In theory, probability is a mathematical framework in which events are assigned numbers that add up to 1. Debates about the interpretation of these numbers (as frequencies, credences, propensities, or other) occupy philosophers and other academics, but such considerations don't matter in the real world. In practice, probability is both more complex and less complicated than its common representation in mathematical probability theory. In this talk, I discuss theoretical, practical, psychological, and ethical aspects of risk, uncertainty, and probability in the context of a real world case study from professional gambling. (Based on a true story.)